Abstract

Abstract 10.1002/zoo.10071.abs Management of captive populations relies on a complex synthesis of genetic and demographic analyses to guide populations toward sustainability. Demographic analyses of captive populations currently utilize age-based matrix projections to predict a population’s trajectory. An alternate approach is to use a stage-based, system dynamics model for captive systems. Such models can more easily incorporate complex captive systems in which population dynamics are dependent on a combination of management and a species’ biology. By linking these two areas, population managers can gain a more accurate understanding of how management decisions impact captive populations and which aspects of a species’ demography should be of special concern in the future. We present a general stage-based system dynamics model that has been developed for use with captive populations. The utility of the model is then illustrated by applying it to three captive bear populations: spectacled bears (Tremarctos ornatus), sloth bears (Melursus ursinus), and sun bears (Helarctos malayanus). Zoo Biol 22:45–64, 2003. © 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.